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The Libertarian Vote Total
by Harry Browne
November 10, 2004
Now we can take a little time off to celebrate the fact that for a year or so we
will no longer have to watch negative campaign ads, listen to predictable
partisan spin commentary on TV, or endure stupid remarks from campaigning
Republicans and Democrats.
Meanwhile, however, too many Libertarians will be examining the 2004
Libertarian presidential vote total —
either pointing with pride or viewing with alarm.
My advice to them is to spend their time doing something more productive
— such as building the Libertarian Party
to a level where someday its vote totals can be meaningful.
Too many libertarians (whether or not they’re in the Libertarian Party)
fail to recognize the enormous obstacles that any third-party campaign faces
— and they ignore the tremendous
opportunities the Libertarian presidential campaign offers.
OBSTACLES
America has a 2-party system, but not because of popular demand.
The Democrats and Republicans have legislated third parties into
irrelevance — using five principal
methods: donation
limits, reporting
laws,
campaign subsidies, the
Debate Commission,
and ballot-access laws.
To give you just two examples of the impact of these hurdles:
In 2000, the
presidential campaign raised $2.6 million, but $250,000 of that had to be
diverted into ballot-access drives in just two states: Pennsylvania and
Arizona. That’s money that could have gone into advertising, but instead
was of no value in campaign outreach.
In my home state of Tennessee, Republicans and
Democrats are listed on the ballot with their party labels. But candidates
of any other parties must be listed as "Independent." Thus anyone entering
the polling booth determined to vote against the two major parties must
know already which third-party candidate to vote for. If he doesn’t, he’ll
be afraid to choose among the "Independents," not knowing which of them
might be a Nazi or a Communist.
These are just two examples of the legislative barriers placed in the way
of third parties. To list all the various hurdles would fill a
good-sized book.
OVERCOMING THE HURDLES
The legislated barriers aren’t insurmountable, but they are very, very
tall.
They keep a Libertarian presidential candidate off the radar screen and
prevent him from getting anywhere close to 5% of the vote. And they will
continue to do so until two events can occur:
-
The candidate can run a
campaign of at least $10 million — and
$20 million or $30 million would be even better. Even though Republicans
and Democrats pour hundreds of millions of dollars into their campaigns, a much smaller
Libertarian campaign could achieve a great deal. For one thing, unlike
with the major parties, most of the money would go into advertising
— enough repetitive advertising to
finally be noticed and draw attention. And instead of wasting money on ads
that attack one’s opponent(s), the Libertarian ads would be showing
Americans how much better their lives would be if libertarian proposals
were implemented.
-
The Libertarian candidate is treated as a news
item by the media. That means that reporters follow him around (rather
than offering the single, obligatory interview), because they believe that
what he says will affect the outcome of the election
— even if his victory isn’t considered
possible. The most likely route by which the Libertarian candidate will
become news is by having a large enough advertising campaign
— as described in #1 above.
I know of only three ways a Libertarian presidential candidate could
raise the money necessary to run a first-class campaign.
Celebrity
The first possibility is to run a celebrity candidate.
Such a person might be able to get far more public attention than we're
used to now — by attracting media
attention and drawing large crowds to campaign events. This could make it
easier to raise the money needed to do enough advertising to put the
Libertarian Party on the political map. It’s also possible that a celebrity
candidate would be able and willing to put a significant sum of his own
money into the campaign.
To draw crowds and money, the celebrity would most likely have to be in
the entertainment business. A minor political celebrity (Governor, state
legislator, or even Congressman) isn’t likely to attract the attention,
crowds, and money needed.
The biggest drawback to the celebrity approach is the danger that the
celebrity will compromise important parts of the Libertarian platform.
He could even turn out to be an embarrassment to the party, as Howard Stern
was when he announced he was running for governor of New York, made some
innocuous proposals, and then dropped out.
Another drawback is that a celebrity candidate isn’t likely to produce a
lasting value to the party. When Ralph Nader ran on the Green Party ticket
in 2000, he generated almost 3 million votes. But he was no longer a Green in 2004
— and David Cobb, the Green Party
candidate, generated only about 100,000 votes. (Even Nader and Cobb combined
drew only a half-million votes in 2004.) The Green Party didn’t get a boost
upward from Nader’s 2000 candidacy.
And, as with Ralph Nader and the Greens, a celebrity can't be counted on
to stick around. You should never go into business with someone who has
little to gain from staying and little to lose from quitting. The celebrity
isn't as likely to have as much at stake and at risk as the Libertarian
Party does.
Although I believe a celebrity can do much in other ways to help the libertarian
movement, a celebrity serving as a presidential candidate could easily turn
out to be an embarrassing mistake — one
more silver bullet that hits the wrong target.
Billionaire
The second possibility is to have a wealthy individual as the
presidential or vice-presidential candidate —
provided he will put many millions of dollars into the campaign.
It probably would be safer to have such a person running as the
vice-presidential candidate, as this would allow us to pick as the
presidential candidate an articulate, well-informed, principled individual.
A wealthy individual would probably prefer being second on the ticket
anyway, as an effective presidential campaign has to be a full-time job for
at least a year.
Growing the Party
The third possibility is to build the Libertarian Party to a size where its
fund-raising base is large enough to finance a campaign that could put the
party on the political map.
This was the strategy pursued in the late 1990s. The LP grew from 9,473
members in February 1994 to 33,194 in November 2000. The Project Archimedes
program was shooting for 200,000 members eventually, but it was inexplicably
abandoned shortly before the 2000 campaign — just as the program was
succeeding.
A large party would give us the best of all worlds. Not only would it
generate the funds for a major advertising campaign, it also would provide a
larger pool of talents, skills, people with influence, and volunteers of all
kinds.
And it would allow us to choose the best candidate available at the time
— without regard to his celebrity or his
personal wealth.
WHY WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
I recently read this statement in a political forum:
The LP has been wasting its
time trying to run presidential campaigns that stand no chance of ever
getting elected, let alone influence public policy in our direction. In the
wake of the disastrous Badnarik vote totals, it should be obvious to people
by now that running campaigns at the national level are a waste of time,
considering we are politically irrelevant and we still don't have the clout,
the money, and the resources to swing the electorate our way.
I couldn’t disagree more.
Suppose for the moment that we’re never big enough to run a first-class
presidential campaign with millions of dollars of advertising. I still
believe the presidential campaign is vitally important.
Even more, I believe the LP’s presidential campaign is the most valuable
form of outreach in the entire libertarian movement.
Organizations like the Independent Institute,
Cato,
Reason, Advocates for Self-Government,
the von Mises Institute, and others do very important
work. I’m grateful that I can rely on so much of their efforts.
But aside from Downsize DC,
there is only one element in the libertarian movement that takes libertarian
ideas directly to the public through television and radio in a significant
way at this time — and that's the Libertarian presidential campaign. Too bad
it comes around only once every four years.
Results
I’m not privy to statistics from the Badnarik campaign, so let me
cite the 2000 campaign to back up my contention.
In 2000 I appeared on 53 national TV
shows, plus 90 national radio shows. And I appeared on 455 local radio and
TV shows. All this just between February 2000 and election day.
What other libertarian activity gets that kind of public platform?
Not only that, but appearances like that can be far more valuable than those
made by other libertarians.
Representatives from libertarian organizations occasionally are invited
to appear on radio or TV — usually to
discuss some current proposal for more government. Unless they are unusually
adept at converting discussions of issues into discussions of principles,
their comments are limited to trying to stop a single new proposal — rather
than making the case for moving toward more liberty, and rather than being
able to show the benefits of libertarian positions on a whole range of
subjects.
But my appearances allowed me to push the libertarian line straight
across the board, and in a positive
way — advancing liberty rather than resisting more government. I was able to
talk about increasing your income
by repealing the income tax, assuring your retirement by freeing you from
Social Security, reducing crime by ending drug prohibition and getting rid of
the gun laws, providing peace and
security through a non-meddling foreign policy, and so on. I was able
to say, in other words, that there’s a much better world available, if we
will but take it.
For a 15-minute example of what can be achieved in a single interview,
click here.
In the 2000 campaign, Jim Babka and Robert Brunner did an outstanding job
of getting me on radio and TV shows with large audiences, and it paid off.
For part of the campaign, they were augmented by a public relations firm
that had good contacts with national media.
Even now hardly a day goes by that I don’t receive an email from someone telling
me that he first decided he was a libertarian after seeing me on TV during
the 1996 or 2000 campaign. An aggressive presidential campaign is able to achieve
such results because it has direct access to
non-libertarians, something not generally available otherwise to libertarians.
Value of the Campaign
By focusing on the vote totals (which can never surpass a million in our
present stage), we overlook the tremendous good the presidential campaign
can do right now:
It is the #1 form of
outreach and public education available to the libertarian movement. The
Libertarian presidential candidate is given a platform that simply isn’t
available to anyone else in the libertarian movement.
It can help build the
Libertarian Party by generating inquiries that can be converted to new
members. In 2000, media appearances generated almost 40,000 inquiries to the LP.
It can promote the
Libertarian label — thereby helping
local candidates, especially local candidates who are unable to get much media
coverage.
An articulate Libertarian candidate can cause
the media people who interview him to acquire new respect for, and pay
more attention to, libertarians
in general.
MAKING THE MOST OF THE CAMPAIGN
To capitalize on the tremendous opportunities a presidential (or local) campaign
offers, I believe the following are important guidelines:
The presidential candidate
should be chosen first and foremost on his ability to articulate
libertarian positions and principles in a few words and in a forceful way.
Most everything else needed can be achieved by people on the campaign
staff.
The candidate (whether
national or local) must present
a pure libertarian message, so that listeners begin to generalize and
realize that even their favorite government programs probably are a
mistake. If the candidate doesn’t know how to deal quickly and
persuasively with some issue, he should take the time to discover good
answers for it — perhaps even seeking
help from people who do know how to handle that issue effectively.
You should never present
any proposal that a Republican or Democrat could propose.
A local candidate who isn't
articulate should join a Toastmasters club or take special speaking
lessons. To represent the LP properly, he needs to learn to think on his
feet, organize his thoughts into brief statements, respond to questions,
and take the offensive in interviews.
The candidate should focus
on three or four issues, appropriate to the office he’s running for, couching each issue in terms of dramatic benefits
that the individual listener could have if the libertarian position were
adopted. He also should develop the skill of discussing any issue
in terms of the individual listener’s life —
how the listener is being hurt by the prevailing policy and how his life would be
improved dramatically by the libertarian approach to that issue.
Wherever possible, the
candidate should focus on the benefits of changing present policies,
rather than trying to ward off some misguided new proposal. When an
interviewer wants to talk about some proposed new government program, the
candidate should be able to point out its dangers quickly, and then go on
the offensive — showing how much better off we'd all be by reducing
government. We will attract more people by showing them how much better
their lives could be than by trying to scare them about some new danger.
People have enough problems already; they're not interested in hearing
about new ones.
In interviews
the candidate should use the word "libertarian" frequently: "The libertarian position
is . . .," "The libertarian way to handle this would be . . .,"
"Libertarians want you to be free to . . .," and so on. The candidate’s
principal task is to build respect and name recognition for the
Libertarian label. We want people to understand that
Libertarians have specific, realistic ways of making their lives better,
and that
only Libertarians really want them to be free to live their lives as they think best.
Every candidate, national
or local, should assume that he won’t win his election
— even if he thinks he has a chance to
win. If he does win, so much the better. But he should assume that his
principal goal is to build positive name recognition for the Libertarian
label, so that his campaign will benefit all other campaigns
— in the present and the future. If he
ignores that goal and focuses on building his own name recognition, he
will have achieved nothing positive if he loses the race.
TV and radio ads should be
one minute, not 30 seconds, because it takes a full minute to present a
libertarian position persuasively. The ads should emphasize the word
"Libertarian," so that they build name recognition for the Libertarian
label and help local candidates. An ad that focuses more on the
candidate's name and just says, "Vote for . . ." is
a waste of money.
TV ads should have the
phone number and website address on the screen for many, many seconds —
long enough for someone to grab a pencil and write down the information.
Radio ads should give this information several times during a one-minute
ad. Generating inquiries is a primary reason for running campaign ads.
Bumper stickers and yard signs are more
valuable if they say "Vote Libertarian," rather than displaying a
candidate’s name. This is true for local candidates as well as the
presidential candidate. A "Vote Libertarian" sign helps all Libertarian
candidates, the party, and the libertarian movement
— providing a lasting benefit. A sign
with a candidate’s name helps no one after the campaign is over.
I must acknowledge that we didn’t adhere strictly to every one of these principles
at all times in the
2000 campaign. But we learned a great deal — both about a proper campaign
strategy and about the tactics necessary to get media appearances,
spend money efficiently, and other technical matters.
So that the knowledge gained wouldn’t disappear at the end of the
campaign, Perry Willis and I wrote extensive
campaign reports. Reading those reports could save future candidates,
national and local, a
great deal of time and money — even if
they think they can run better campaigns than we did. I strongly urge anyone
who will be involved in any Libertarian campaign at any level
to read those reports.
THE VOTE TOTAL
At this point, the Libertarian vote total is relatively meaningless.
The LP simply isn't big enough today to overcome the hurdles that the old
parties, using the force of government, have placed in our way.
So before you criticize the Badnarik campaign for not getting a million
or more votes, realize what they were up against and what they were able to
achieve. Michael and his staff worked very hard and accomplished a lot, and
the money donated to the campaign certainly wasn't wasted.
The vote total should be the least of our concerns at this stage of
the Libertarian Party's development. We need to be taking advantage of the enormous
opportunities that can be exploited by any Libertarian campaign
— presidential or local
— and not pinning our hopes on a sudden, miraculous breakthrough in the
vote total.
If we run a large slate of candidates, we shouldn’t expect all the
candidates to be as persuasive as the presidential candidate. But each
candidate should take the time to develop good answers to the questions he
will get, and good approaches to the issues he wants to stress. Most of the
guidelines listed above apply to local candidates as much as the
presidential candidate.
The Libertarian presidential campaign can be the most valuable
form of outreach available to the libertarian movement. We should make the most of it by focusing on what’s possible
— and not wringing our hands over what
today is still impossible.
If we concentrate on the opportunities —
especially by building the LP as rapidly as possible and running persuasive
presidential campaigns — we make it more
likely that someday we will be able to run competitive races all up and down
the Libertarian ticket. |